22.000 new helicopters by 2036 : the anticipation of a new breath by Airbus




The time of the return to growth may have finally come to the market for helicopters in civil and parapublic more than five seats. According to a market study of Airbus Helicopters (AH), it will represent an amount of 370 billion euros over the period 2017-2036, including $ 125 billion for the delivery of helicopters as new, and 245 billion for the maintenance, support and spare parts. 18.5 billion euros on average per year (outside the military market). A growing market fuelled in large part by the acquisition of fleet by emerging countries in Asia-Pacific (+ 157% growth over the period), in Africa and the Middle East (+ 103%) and South America (+ 65%).

Thus, the global fleet of helicopters is expected to increase from the 25,000 devices in 2016 to 37.400 by 2036, provides for the manufacturer in his study. In practical terms, nearly 22,000 new devices (21.882) will be delivered (43%, corresponding to a renewal of existing fleets and 57% of pure growth) while 15.529 devices in service now will continue to fly. The emerging countries will contribute more than 80% to the growth of the world fleet will increase by 50% by 2036. For example, the Asia-Pacific will own 27% of the world fleet in 2036 (compared to 16% in 2016), equal with North America. A fleet of approximately 10,000 helicopters.

The market is on the rise again beginning in 2017

Is this the end of the crisis? In any case, the subsidiary hélicoptériste Airbus has found that after five years of erosion of orders on the market of civil and parapublic (- 30%), the market has finally stabilised in the first half of 2017 and would even increase. The growth of orders for all hélicoptéristes amounted to 3% in the first half of 2017, while the Airbus Helicopters peaked at the same time to 27%, according to the study by the manufacturer of Marignane.

The hélicoptériste european, which has a turnover of € 6.5 billion in 2016, has confirmed its resilience in the face of turbulence in the major who have been in this market (very big depressed market oil & gas, problems of the family H225). In particular, its market share in the segment of heavy helicopters is down to 9% in 2016 (46 units sold). “Historically, Airbus Helicopters is better positioned on the market”, argued at The Forum the director of marketing for AH, David Prevor, the author of this first detailed study.

So far, AH has managed to draw its pin from the game in 2015, then 2016, increasing its market share in a context of depressed (42% 727 units sold in 2014 ; 56% of the 570 devices in 2016). Thus, the hélicoptériste european has benefited to the extent of its range to hold market share in the majority on three market segments : 69% on the aircraft single-turbine light (H125 and H130), 68% on the biturbines light (H135 and H145) and 67% on the Super Medium (H175), but where only twelve machines were sold.

On the other hand, AH has completely stalled in the segment of medium with only 6% market share (AS365, H155 and H160). But the constructor ensures that it will “reposition itself” in this segment thanks to its new helicopter H160, whose first deliveries are expected in 2019.

Reasons for hope

From a macroeconomic point of view, Airbus Helicopters based great hopes on the development of emerging countries, which are mostly absent in the rankings 2016 top ten with the largest fleets of helicopters (United States, Russia, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, France and Germany). Starting with China, which has almost tripled its fleet (2,7) over the past five years. In 2016, it has ordered more than 100 aircraft. But China does not point only at the eleventh place in 2016 while she is in the lead in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP). India (3rd place in terms of GDP/PPP) and Indonesia (7th) are also not included in this classification. By 2036, the decision power of the emerging countries in the top 10 economic powers (China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico) “will explain the growth of the helicopter market,” says David Prevor.

Airbus Helicopters believes that the helicopter will make it increasingly of service to protect people, save lives service (UAS), transporting workers to platforms and off-shore (oil and wind), or of the fortunate passengers in environments such as São Paulo in Brazil. During hurricane Katrina in 2005, over 2,000 people were saved, 450 have been using helicopters, according to David Prevor. Finally, the helicopters can be alternatives to the constructions in town or in sites that are very isolated to transport materials.

Growth by segments and areas

Over the next twenty years, the heavy helicopters and super-medium will represent 38% of sales in value terms (17% and 21%) of the 22,000 new aircraft put into service. In unity, this corresponds, respectively, to 6% (1.243 devices) and 9% (1.916). Sales in the segments of medium and biturbines light will they amount to 45% in value (respectively 21% and 24%) and 35% in the unit (respectively, 11% and 24%). Finally, the controls for the devices mono-turbines will represent over the period 2016-2036 10.949 devices (50% in units and 17% in value).

More than 7.600 helicopters will be sold in the Asia-Pacific area by 2036. This represents 34% by value and 35% in unit of the 22,000 aircraft put in service over the period. In North America, 4.749 helicopters will be delivered over the period (18% in value and 22% in units), while Europe will service 3.942 devices (20% by value and 18% in the unit). Finally, the Latin America and the Africa/Middle East will buy, respectively, 3.082 (13% in value, 14% in unit) and 2.492 machines (15% in value and 11% in unit). If its forecasts are confirmed, Airbus Helicopters as its rivals will be able to see the future pink…

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